State of agriculture still uncertain

By MIKE CORN

Hays Daily News

The outlook for agriculture this year can be summed up easily, with just one word: uncertainty.

That's because there's plenty of uncertainty out there.

There's uncertainty concerning what the weather will do, given that much of northwest Kansas has been in the death grip of a five-year drought. That drought continues even though officials again this year have tried to once again announce that the drought is over. Statistics from the bigger region suggest otherwise.

Hays is well ahead of normal so far this year, what with 2.73 inches of rain already in the gauge. That's more than double the 1.17 inches that would have normally been expected about the first of March. Hays and Ellis County, however, have been something of an oasis over the past several years in an otherwise drought-ravaged area.

But Colby, for example, is not doing as well as Hays.

Instead, this year alone, the Northwest Kansas Research-Extension Center at Colby — a branch of the Kansas State University Agricultural Research Center in Hays — has only measured .54 of an inch so far this year. The National Weather Service in Goodland has only had .34 of an inch, less than half what would be expected.

Snowfall has been something of an illusion, what with Goodland only recording 5.8 inches since Dec. 1. But weather is not the only area of uncertainty in the farm sector.

There's also plenty of uncertainty concerning what the federal farm program will do, given that President George Bush has recommended a budget that would limit the amount of subsidies that farmers will receive.

But no one is certain how much effect that will have on farmers, including a spokesman for Rep. Jerry Moran, R-Hays, who said that Bush's budget is little more than a recommendation.

Instead, the spokesman said, Congress will have the chance to look at what the budget will do and what effect it might have.

It all might be a moot point depending on what the weather does this year.

“We're not out of this drought yet,” pronounced Scott Ross, the water commissioner for the northwest region of the Kansas Division of Water Resources. He made that pronouncement at a recent meeting of a group that provides recommendations on a state water plan.

DWR is the state agency responsible for administration of water rights in Kansas and also gets called into action when streams fall below a specific level, designated as a minimum desirable streamflow, that is set by state law. When streams fall below a specific level, water users junior to that streamflow can be shut off.

Although that's not the case along the Smoky Hill River, and the Saline River seems to be holding its own, Ross said there are about 200 water users along the Republican River that have had water use restricted.

Streamflow is a direct product of how much rain falls.

Rainfall is also a factor in how much crop insurance is paid out.

And even though conditions were considered to be better in 2004 than in previous years, crop insurance payments were higher than a year earlier.

Northwest Kansas continues to take its share — and then some — of the total payments that are made.

In 2004, total crop insurance payments amounted to $284 million. Of that, $75.5 million was paid to farmers in the 20 counties that make up northwest Kansas.

That is slightly better than in 2003, but only in terms of what was paid in the region.

Insurance payments in 2003 amounted to $274 million, but $98 million of that went to farmers in northwest Kansas.

The worst year in recent history was in 2002 when total crop insurance payments amounted to $447 million. Northwest Kansas farmers that year collected $147 million.

Payments from 1999 through 2001 were much smaller, ranging from $64 million in 1999 to $168 million in 2001.

Managing editor Mike Corn can be reached at (785) 628-1081, ext. 129, or by e-mail at

mcorn@dailynews.net.